What's With Boris and Amare?

It seems like Boris Diaw is a lot better when playing without Amare Stoudemire. The last quarter of the Bulls game was dramatic when Boris played extremely well. But it is something a lot of commentators have noticed. However, the explanation is always to say the problem is that Boris just isn't assertive enough.

I'm sure that's true, but I think there is something else going on as well. The defenses he's facing when Amare is in the lineup are different than when he's not.

When Amare is in the lineup, opponents become obsessed with stopping him. Increasingly, opponents are putting as many as three guys close to basket. With the added danger of Hill's drives, Barbosa's drives, Nash's drives, and Marion's backdoor cuts; opponents are prepared to risk the Suns going bombs away from the outside. They prefer risking 40% for three than fouling everyone out failing to stop Stoudemire with a straight defense.

The problem for Diaw is that he is best at drive and kick plays which are effectively taken away when opponents are that tightly packed. He's open for mid range jumpers because opponents will accept those rather than let him get in close.

What's interesting is that when Amare is out, opponents start paying more attention to the shooters. During 2005-06, opponents were far more concerned about the three than the inside. This meant that when Diaw would get around his man, there weren't a bunch of other defenders under the basket waiting for him. In the fourth quarter of the Bulls game, the open defensive setup meant Diaw was able to shine.

Using Diaw in more of point guard role when Nash is not in the lineup gives him a valuable function. But it appears he's best when Amare is on the bench and floor is opened up. Considering how often Stoudemire gets into foul trouble that can be a lot of minutes, but Diaw's minutes may go down if his value is limited to when Amare sits.

In the second Kings game, the Suns showed used Skinner along with Stoudemire during a stretch. It worked quite well. Skinner offers some of the same things that Marion offers such as rebounding, defense, weak side shot blocking, and cuts to the basket. It's only one game, but this looks like it may be a better combination than using Diaw with Stoudemire since those are not Diaw's strengths..

Restricting Diaw to backing up Amare and some point guard work would mean fewer minutes for Diaw, but it could mean a lot more productivity

Suns As A Fantasy Team

In last week's ESPN magazine, there was article about NBA fantasy teams which included a ranking of players. NBA.com has it's own rankings as well. The Suns are very highly regarded on the ESPN system in particular

The ESPN rankings have three Suns in their top 10:

1 Kevin Garnett (Celtics)
2. LeBron James (Cavaliers)
3. Kobe Bryant (Lakers)
4. Gilbert Arenas (Wizzards)
5. Steve Nash
6. Shanw Marion
7. Dirk Nowitzki (Mavericks)
8. Amare Stoudemire
9. Paul Gasol (Grizzlies)
10. Dwayne Wade (Heat)
11. Jason Kidd (Nets)
12. Chris Paul (Hornets)
13. Yao Ming (Rockets)
14. Time Duncan (Spurs)
15. Andre Iguodala (Sixers)
16. Chris Bosh (Raptors)
17. Paul Pierce (Celtics)
18. Josh Smith (Hawks)
19. Allan Iverson (Nuggests)
20. Al Jefferson (Timberwolves)

The only other team with more than one guy in the top 20 is the Celtics.

NBA.com has their own ranking for posslbe fantasy drafts:
http://www.nba.com/media/fantasy/cheatsheets.html

Player - TM [POS]
1. Kevin Garnett - BOS [PF]
2. Gilbert Arenas - WAS [PG]
3. LeBron James - CLE [SF]
4. Kobe Bryant - LAL [SG]
5. Shawn Marion - PHX [SF,PF]
6. Steve Nash - PHX [PG]
7. Jason Kidd - NJN [PG]
8. Dirk Nowitzki - DAL [PF]
9. Amare Stoudemire - PHX [C]
10. Josh Smith - ATL [SF,PF]
11. Chris Paul - NOH [PG]
12. Andre Iguodala - PHI [SG,SF]
13. Dwyane Wade - MIA [SG]
14. Pau Gasol - MEM [C]
15. Yao Ming - HOU [C]
16. Chris Bosh - TOR [PF]
17. Tim Duncan - SAS [PF]
18. Al Jefferson - MIN [PF,C]
19. Vince Carter - NJN [SG]
20. Ray Allen - BOS [SG]

Their ranking substitutes Ray Allen for Paul Pierce as the second Celtic in the top 20.

Obviously fantasy rankings leave out some major stuff like team defense and team play. For example, Arenas is better fantasy player than Nash, but no one if their right mind would give up Nash for Arenas. In any case, from a fantasy standpoint the Suns are projected to be the top team.

In the ESPN fantasy rankings of the top 100 players, the Suns have three other contenders (with NBA.com ranking them just a bit lower except for Diaw)

41. Leandro Barbosa (49 on NBA.com)
90. Raja Bell (97 on NBA.com)
93. Boris Diaw (122 on NBA.com)

NBA.com has their rankings by position, but they are not consistent.

PG: 2. Nash, 10. Barbosa

SG: 16. Barbosa (cheat sheet) 21. Bell (direct listing not on cheat sheet) 32. Hill (he's not on the NBA.com 150 listing)

SF 2. Marion

PF 2. Marion 19. Diaw

C. 1. Stoudemire

Fantasy rankings are based on stats and it is hard for everyone to rank high in categories like scoring, assists, and rebounding because at least some improvement by one guy will come at the expense of another. It is clear that having a high octane offense like the Suns gives more guys an opportunity to shine, but the Warriors are not that highly ranked in fantasy terms and they certainly can score.

Does any of it matter? Probably not. Still, it shows why so many people are high on the Suns chances. This is despite how little regard Hill is given considering his stats were pretty good last year and will be a starter on a very high scoring team.

D'Antoni Ball

LoyaltyisaCurse: "D'antoni did not invent this style of basketball..."

Obviously everything has been done before in some manner or another, but I think the combination of characteristics is pretty rare.

1. Run On Made Baskets: Very few teams run every time down the court, but that's what D'Antoni tries to get done. Most teams run in order to get "easy baskets" while D'Antoni is trying to get into the offense before the opposition gets set.

2. Speed At Every Position: Most teams try to use a speed advantage to create matchup issues at one or two positions, but the Suns try to do it every position with the goal of forcing the other team to play small. This means taking away the opponent's main advantage (size and strength) as they try to keep up with the much faster Suns.

3. Total Emphasis on the "Hit the open man, shoot the open shot" philosophy:Not only does he emphasize hitting the open man, but that the open man should take the shot. Most coaches make a point of defining who can shoot shots and when. Players new to the Suns are amazed that they will get yelled at for NOT shooting.

4. Shooting Three Point Shots Off the Break Is Encouraged: Unlike most NBA teams that emphasize layups off the break, the Suns typically look for open shooters on the break. This is fairly common in Europe, but is only recently catching on in the NBA. This style requires having a couple of high quality catch and shoot guys on the floor at any point in time.

5. Unstructured Half Court Offense: The Suns don't run many plays other than after time outs. As a general rule, they are being taught to look for open players to pass to, rather than the next guy in the progression of a fixed play. This requires having several guys who are good at passing, are aware of who is where, and are unselfish while still being agressive. Nash is the perfect player for this approach, but everyone has to buy into unselfish play.

6. Wide Range of Options Off the Pick and Roll: Every team runs the pick and roll, but the Suns do a lot more with this play including kick out passes to three point shooters, back door plays, pull up mid range shots, and Nash "wandering about" so that defenders lose sight of him to make passes from odd angles. This is so hard to do that the Suns struggle when Nash isn't around - but it is a big part of their offense.

7. High Post and Spread the Court: The Suns try to spread the floor to limit the ability of defenders to guard two guys while making sure that every player is a scoring threat. This tends to pull defenders away from the paint which makes their pick and roll all the more effective. At the same time, when opponents go to a zone, the Suns have someone at the elbow who is effective at shooting the mid rang shot.

Obviously some of the unique aspects of the Suns is their personnel. Nash is unique and Amare's skills are almost as rare. But D'Antoni has tried to get people who are suited to his style so it is not an accident that he's got a team loaded with athletic shooters

Suns Camp Begins on Tuesday

As the Suns go into training camp on Tuesday, the question of whether the Marion controvery will disrupt the team any more than it has in the past is far from the only question to be answered over the next month.

1. How much impact will Grant Hill make? Reports from his workouts have been very promising, but that's a long way from knowing how far back from his injury he's come. There is a giddy fantasy that he's back to being close to the 90's Hill, which is too much to expect. But even a return to his 2004-05 performance where he scored just under 20 ppg would be huge.

2. How will Brian Skinner react to the Suns style? Skinner sat out most of the summer waiting and hoping for a chance to play with the Suns on the belief he will thrive in D'Antoni's system. He's a big (265 pound), strong, athletic inside guy who plays defense and is a pretty good rebounder. D'Antoni has been reluctant to play guys who cannot shoot, but he may become a backup for Marion who cannot shoot either. If Brian does not adapt, it will leave the Suns very weak on the inside.

3. Can Sean Marks contribute? After barely playing last season, it is hard to know whether he can or cannot play. In 2005-06 with the Spurs, Marks showed a decent mid range shot in limited minutes, but it does not explain why he didn't play last season.

4. Will Diaw return to his 2005-06 effectiveness? Last season he came to camp out of condition and never really returned to his previous level of performance. This year he has lost weight for the Eurobasket bournament and when that was over, the Suns sent a conditioning coach to Paris to work with him. It looks like the Suns plan to use Diaw exclusively on the inside the season where he seems to be better suited than at small forward. All of ths give hope that he will return to his former effectivenss, but that remains to be seen.

5. Will Banks emerge as a useful player or just get buried again on the bench? Banks had a couple of good outings in summer league and has spent much of the summer in informal workouts with Nash, Hill, etc. New coach Jay Humphries has promised to make Banks his special project. None the less, the rumors that the Suns are constantly trying to unload him remain strong, so it is far from clear that he's changed the team's opinion of him.

6 Will either of rookies make an impact? Tucker and Strawberry are both super athletes with very good physical strenth, team orientation, and weak shooting skills. In college, Tucker was very good at finishing at the basket and Strawberry was an elite on-the-ball defender. Strawberry showed some promise as a distributor point guard and Tucker had some summer league games where he scored a lot. Will any of this translate into regular season minutes?

7. Will Stoudemire get better on defense? Amare's summer with the USA team gave him a chance to practice against Dwight Howard and under the direction McMillian. This remains a major focus on what the team is looking for from him. Without KT, there is no "safety net" for Amare to get by with inconsistent defense.

8. Will the Marion stink cause problems? All of this will be overshadowed by Marion, but unless he's even dumber than he sounds the Suns can expect him to do much of what he's always done. The rest of the team seems prepared to live with his complaining as long as he continues to get the job done on court. But if he becomes even more selfish than in the past, the situation could change.

This seems like a lot of questions for a team that is so highly rated, but this is due to how small the margin for error there is when going for a championship.

Shooting A Key to Banks

Last season, a major issue for Banks was his shooting. He was very good when going to the basket, but not when shooting the ball.

2006-07
Layups: 47 of 77 for 60% (40.1% of total shots)
Short: 1 of 8 for 12.5%
Mid: 31 of 82 for 37.9%
3 pointers: 5 of 29 for 17.2% (14.8% of total shots)

2005-06
Layups: 105 of 178 59.0% (38.3% for the total shots)
Short: 7 of 25 for 28%
Mid: 82 of 202 for 40.6%
3 pointers: 22 of 60 for 36.7% (12.9% of total shots)

One odd thing about guys playing relatively small minutes is how much difference just a few shots can make. If Banks had hit his three pointers like he did in 2005-06, he'd have had 6 more made shots and raised his percentages to 45.9% overall.

Only 40% of his shots were layups, but 54.3% of the made shots and 50.9% of shooting points were from layups.

FT - 48
Layups 44 * 2 = 88
Other 35 * 2 = 70
Three 5 * 3 = 15
-----------------------
Total 221

Banks was actually better at getting to the basket than Barbosa on roughly the same percentage of shots. But Leandro was a very good long range shooter including 43.4% for three on 190 of 438; while Banks just wasn't. One odd element is that Leandro was only marginally better than Banks on his mid range shooting, 40.1% versus 37.9% for Banks; but Leandro's three point shooting was exceptional.

This is why Banks' 4 of 5 for three in the Las Vegas game is such a big deal. If he can learn to shoot threes and play within the scheme, he could become very valuable.

Taking Pressure Off of Nash

One comment by Steve Kerr in his ESPN interview by Simmons noted that the Suns look for Grant Hill and Boris Diaw to take some of the pressure off Nash this year. Unfortunately, Simmons made no follow up questions.

This is potentially a big deal. Since joining the Suns, the entire offense has been run through Nash and opponents have tried everything possible to stop him. The popular belief is "stop Nash and you stop the Suns".

It's easier to say "stop Nash" than to do it. The Spurs put master defender Bruce Bowen on him and really rouged Nash up. But for the series, Nash averaged 21.3 ppg on 48.4% shooting and shot 13 of 25 for three. Yet Nash stil dished out 12.7 assists per game.

If Bowen cannot stop Nash, it is hard to imagine anyone can. But there is a price. More and more teams are using double teams and simply pounding on him to wear him out. Some critics image the problem with Nash wearing out at the end of seasons is due to the number of minutes he plays. It isn't. It's the continual pounding he goes through.

How can Hill help? Back in the late 90's when Grant Hill was with the Pistons, he played quite a bit at point guard. From 1994-95 to 2000-01, he averaged over 5 assists per game every year including 7.3 assists per game in 1996-97.

Could Hill play point guard like Nash does? That's not feasible. But he could take some of the pressure off in the half court sets.

In the Suns offense there are three stages to what the point guard does:

1. Bring the Ball Up Court: The Suns try to bring the ball up court as quickly as possible. Barbosa is not viewed as a real point guard, but he can do that as well as anyone.

2. Early Offense: This is the part of the Suns offense which is run before the opponent's defense is set. Nash is absolutely amazing at finding the open man and making passes directly off the dribble.

3. Half Court Offense: Much of what the Suns do in the half court is run the pick and roll. Nash is outstanding at this, but it is the stage when opponents try to trap him, push him, grab him, and generally knock him about.

The idea appears to be to have Hill run the half court offense at least some of the time. This would not only cut down on the absue of Nash, but it would have at least one additional advantage. It would free up Nash to take more three point shots.

Nash is one of the top three point shooters in the NBA. Last year he finished 2nd with 45.5%. With Hill driving and kicking out to Nash, Nash would get a lot more open shots. Last year Nash ranked only 11th in three pointers made because he took fewer shots since it was Nash who was making the pass.

Will the Suns lose efficiency with Hill running the offense? Clearly no one runs the pick and roll like Nash. However, Hill is much bigger than Nash (listed at 6'8" 225 and is very good at attacking the basket. With his height, he can see over the defenders to make entry passes and overpower smaller guys when attacking the basket. He's also great at finishing at the basket. Nash averaged 66% inside the small circle, but Hill finished over 70%.

Using Hill at least part of the time in the half court offense should take some of the wear and tear on Nash's body while opening him up for more outside shooting. This could turn out to be a very big deal.

Are The Suns Counting on Banks?

In another thread there was discussion that the Suns may simply wait out PJ on the belief that he will not sign with another team. If that's the case, it confirms the suspicion that they are not focused on getting him or any other big as a rotation player. But that leaves only 7 guiys in the rotation, which is not the way Coach D'Antoni does it.

Considering who is left beyond the top seven, (Banks, Marks, Pike, Tucker, and eventually Strawberry), it is not unreasonable to think that imagine are planning to use Banks in the rotation. If true, that will be a remarkable development.

The career of Marcus Banks has been erratic. The 12th pick in 2003, he was immediately traded to the Celtics, but did not do well there. In his first two and a half years his stats:

2003-04 5.9 ppg on 40% shooting and 31.4% for three with 2.2 assists in 17.1 minutes.

2004-05 4.6 ppg on 40.2% and 35.6% for three and 1.9 assists in 14.1 minutes

2005-06 (18 games) 5.5 ppg on 41.3% and 31.6% for three and 1.8 assists in 14.9 minutes

By this point, Banks was considered a bust by the Boston and other east coast reporters. His bad shooting pretty much had him written off as a flop, so his trade to the Wolves was barely noticed in Boston.

However, in Minnesota, he played surprisingly well:

2005-06 (in 40 games with the Wolves) 12.0 ppg, 47.9% and 36.4% for three with 4.7 assists in 30.7 minutes. While more of a combo than a real point guard, he finally looked like a real player. But when he came to the Suns, his career took a big step backward.

The Suns are known for tracking players based on the plus/minus stats when on the court. Does the team improve against the opponent or lose ground? There are many reasons why a guy's plus/minus will be poor (good shooters who cannot defend or guys who make a lot of turnovers), but there is little doubt that bad shooting will hurt. Lst Nobember, Banks shot very badly. What is worse, his overall plus/minus for the season was an awful -13.3 http://www.82games.com/0607/0607PHO.HTM

In November, Banks shot 20 of 59 for 33.9% from the field and just 1 of 8 for three. He averaged 11.7 minutes a game. He made just 1.2 assists per game (0.10 per minute) which was well below the per minute rate of 0.15 assists per minute with the Wolves. In practical terms, Banks shot himself out of the rotation and never worked his way back in.

He shot a little better in Deember, going 9 of 19, but shot only 13 of 33 (39.9%) in January and just 1 of 8 for three. His stats in February actually picked up in the few games he played while Nash was out: 9.1 ppg on 50.8% shooting (32 of 63) in 19.4 minutes. But it wasn't enough to get him playing time the rest of the season as he had only 28 minutes total from then on.

Banks' improved shooting in February did not do anything to improve his trade value. It was widely reported that the Suns tried to trade him and could not get anybody to take him for less than two first round picks. Everyone looked at his plus/minus and knew his reputation from Boston. The Suns could not move him.

It seemed like the Suns had given up on him, but Banks spent the off season working to correct his fatal flaw: poor shooting. And to prove he had made progress, he volunteered to play on the Suns summer leage team which is rare for guy with four years in the leage. But it appears to have been a good move for him.

Summer league does not mean a lot in that the opposition is often quite poor, but Banks demonstrated that he has worked on his shooting. In the only official game, he went 13 of 19 (68.4%) and 4 of 5 for three as he scored 42 points. The next day in a scrimmage against the Pistons, he shot 7 of 8. A few weeks later, the Suns signed Jay Humphries as an assistant coach. Jay said his first priority would be to work with Banks.

Have the Suns changed their view of Banks from a liability to a rotation player? Probably, but not entirely. Humphries suggested that Banks has struggled with the transition to the Suns style. He did not elaborate, but this is probably that the Suns focus on "find the open man/shoot if you are open" style which is very different from the "beat your man off the dribble" style most teams use.

Banks can beat his man off the dribble. The key is to integrate it into the offense the way Barbosa does, rather than getting caught dribbling around on the perimeter. But if he can, he could be a big part of the Suns team this year.

One of the reasons the Suns signed Banks is that he is good man on man defender. He's not only very quick but also very strong. When matching up against the Spurs' Tony Parker, this is something the Suns really need. But this can only happen if Banks is able to shoot.

If Banks can become the guy the Suns thought they signed a year ago, it could change the way the Suns play. Banks and Barbosa are two of the fastest players in the NBA and so quick few defenders can stay in front of them. But even if a team has someone capable of staying in front on one of these guys, no one has the ability to stay in front of both.