What's With Boris and Amare?

It seems like Boris Diaw is a lot better when playing without Amare Stoudemire. The last quarter of the Bulls game was dramatic when Boris played extremely well. But it is something a lot of commentators have noticed. However, the explanation is always to say the problem is that Boris just isn't assertive enough.

I'm sure that's true, but I think there is something else going on as well. The defenses he's facing when Amare is in the lineup are different than when he's not.

When Amare is in the lineup, opponents become obsessed with stopping him. Increasingly, opponents are putting as many as three guys close to basket. With the added danger of Hill's drives, Barbosa's drives, Nash's drives, and Marion's backdoor cuts; opponents are prepared to risk the Suns going bombs away from the outside. They prefer risking 40% for three than fouling everyone out failing to stop Stoudemire with a straight defense.

The problem for Diaw is that he is best at drive and kick plays which are effectively taken away when opponents are that tightly packed. He's open for mid range jumpers because opponents will accept those rather than let him get in close.

What's interesting is that when Amare is out, opponents start paying more attention to the shooters. During 2005-06, opponents were far more concerned about the three than the inside. This meant that when Diaw would get around his man, there weren't a bunch of other defenders under the basket waiting for him. In the fourth quarter of the Bulls game, the open defensive setup meant Diaw was able to shine.

Using Diaw in more of point guard role when Nash is not in the lineup gives him a valuable function. But it appears he's best when Amare is on the bench and floor is opened up. Considering how often Stoudemire gets into foul trouble that can be a lot of minutes, but Diaw's minutes may go down if his value is limited to when Amare sits.

In the second Kings game, the Suns showed used Skinner along with Stoudemire during a stretch. It worked quite well. Skinner offers some of the same things that Marion offers such as rebounding, defense, weak side shot blocking, and cuts to the basket. It's only one game, but this looks like it may be a better combination than using Diaw with Stoudemire since those are not Diaw's strengths..

Restricting Diaw to backing up Amare and some point guard work would mean fewer minutes for Diaw, but it could mean a lot more productivity

Suns As A Fantasy Team

In last week's ESPN magazine, there was article about NBA fantasy teams which included a ranking of players. NBA.com has it's own rankings as well. The Suns are very highly regarded on the ESPN system in particular

The ESPN rankings have three Suns in their top 10:

1 Kevin Garnett (Celtics)
2. LeBron James (Cavaliers)
3. Kobe Bryant (Lakers)
4. Gilbert Arenas (Wizzards)
5. Steve Nash
6. Shanw Marion
7. Dirk Nowitzki (Mavericks)
8. Amare Stoudemire
9. Paul Gasol (Grizzlies)
10. Dwayne Wade (Heat)
11. Jason Kidd (Nets)
12. Chris Paul (Hornets)
13. Yao Ming (Rockets)
14. Time Duncan (Spurs)
15. Andre Iguodala (Sixers)
16. Chris Bosh (Raptors)
17. Paul Pierce (Celtics)
18. Josh Smith (Hawks)
19. Allan Iverson (Nuggests)
20. Al Jefferson (Timberwolves)

The only other team with more than one guy in the top 20 is the Celtics.

NBA.com has their own ranking for posslbe fantasy drafts:
http://www.nba.com/media/fantasy/cheatsheets.html

Player - TM [POS]
1. Kevin Garnett - BOS [PF]
2. Gilbert Arenas - WAS [PG]
3. LeBron James - CLE [SF]
4. Kobe Bryant - LAL [SG]
5. Shawn Marion - PHX [SF,PF]
6. Steve Nash - PHX [PG]
7. Jason Kidd - NJN [PG]
8. Dirk Nowitzki - DAL [PF]
9. Amare Stoudemire - PHX [C]
10. Josh Smith - ATL [SF,PF]
11. Chris Paul - NOH [PG]
12. Andre Iguodala - PHI [SG,SF]
13. Dwyane Wade - MIA [SG]
14. Pau Gasol - MEM [C]
15. Yao Ming - HOU [C]
16. Chris Bosh - TOR [PF]
17. Tim Duncan - SAS [PF]
18. Al Jefferson - MIN [PF,C]
19. Vince Carter - NJN [SG]
20. Ray Allen - BOS [SG]

Their ranking substitutes Ray Allen for Paul Pierce as the second Celtic in the top 20.

Obviously fantasy rankings leave out some major stuff like team defense and team play. For example, Arenas is better fantasy player than Nash, but no one if their right mind would give up Nash for Arenas. In any case, from a fantasy standpoint the Suns are projected to be the top team.

In the ESPN fantasy rankings of the top 100 players, the Suns have three other contenders (with NBA.com ranking them just a bit lower except for Diaw)

41. Leandro Barbosa (49 on NBA.com)
90. Raja Bell (97 on NBA.com)
93. Boris Diaw (122 on NBA.com)

NBA.com has their rankings by position, but they are not consistent.

PG: 2. Nash, 10. Barbosa

SG: 16. Barbosa (cheat sheet) 21. Bell (direct listing not on cheat sheet) 32. Hill (he's not on the NBA.com 150 listing)

SF 2. Marion

PF 2. Marion 19. Diaw

C. 1. Stoudemire

Fantasy rankings are based on stats and it is hard for everyone to rank high in categories like scoring, assists, and rebounding because at least some improvement by one guy will come at the expense of another. It is clear that having a high octane offense like the Suns gives more guys an opportunity to shine, but the Warriors are not that highly ranked in fantasy terms and they certainly can score.

Does any of it matter? Probably not. Still, it shows why so many people are high on the Suns chances. This is despite how little regard Hill is given considering his stats were pretty good last year and will be a starter on a very high scoring team.

D'Antoni Ball

LoyaltyisaCurse: "D'antoni did not invent this style of basketball..."

Obviously everything has been done before in some manner or another, but I think the combination of characteristics is pretty rare.

1. Run On Made Baskets: Very few teams run every time down the court, but that's what D'Antoni tries to get done. Most teams run in order to get "easy baskets" while D'Antoni is trying to get into the offense before the opposition gets set.

2. Speed At Every Position: Most teams try to use a speed advantage to create matchup issues at one or two positions, but the Suns try to do it every position with the goal of forcing the other team to play small. This means taking away the opponent's main advantage (size and strength) as they try to keep up with the much faster Suns.

3. Total Emphasis on the "Hit the open man, shoot the open shot" philosophy:Not only does he emphasize hitting the open man, but that the open man should take the shot. Most coaches make a point of defining who can shoot shots and when. Players new to the Suns are amazed that they will get yelled at for NOT shooting.

4. Shooting Three Point Shots Off the Break Is Encouraged: Unlike most NBA teams that emphasize layups off the break, the Suns typically look for open shooters on the break. This is fairly common in Europe, but is only recently catching on in the NBA. This style requires having a couple of high quality catch and shoot guys on the floor at any point in time.

5. Unstructured Half Court Offense: The Suns don't run many plays other than after time outs. As a general rule, they are being taught to look for open players to pass to, rather than the next guy in the progression of a fixed play. This requires having several guys who are good at passing, are aware of who is where, and are unselfish while still being agressive. Nash is the perfect player for this approach, but everyone has to buy into unselfish play.

6. Wide Range of Options Off the Pick and Roll: Every team runs the pick and roll, but the Suns do a lot more with this play including kick out passes to three point shooters, back door plays, pull up mid range shots, and Nash "wandering about" so that defenders lose sight of him to make passes from odd angles. This is so hard to do that the Suns struggle when Nash isn't around - but it is a big part of their offense.

7. High Post and Spread the Court: The Suns try to spread the floor to limit the ability of defenders to guard two guys while making sure that every player is a scoring threat. This tends to pull defenders away from the paint which makes their pick and roll all the more effective. At the same time, when opponents go to a zone, the Suns have someone at the elbow who is effective at shooting the mid rang shot.

Obviously some of the unique aspects of the Suns is their personnel. Nash is unique and Amare's skills are almost as rare. But D'Antoni has tried to get people who are suited to his style so it is not an accident that he's got a team loaded with athletic shooters

Suns Camp Begins on Tuesday

As the Suns go into training camp on Tuesday, the question of whether the Marion controvery will disrupt the team any more than it has in the past is far from the only question to be answered over the next month.

1. How much impact will Grant Hill make? Reports from his workouts have been very promising, but that's a long way from knowing how far back from his injury he's come. There is a giddy fantasy that he's back to being close to the 90's Hill, which is too much to expect. But even a return to his 2004-05 performance where he scored just under 20 ppg would be huge.

2. How will Brian Skinner react to the Suns style? Skinner sat out most of the summer waiting and hoping for a chance to play with the Suns on the belief he will thrive in D'Antoni's system. He's a big (265 pound), strong, athletic inside guy who plays defense and is a pretty good rebounder. D'Antoni has been reluctant to play guys who cannot shoot, but he may become a backup for Marion who cannot shoot either. If Brian does not adapt, it will leave the Suns very weak on the inside.

3. Can Sean Marks contribute? After barely playing last season, it is hard to know whether he can or cannot play. In 2005-06 with the Spurs, Marks showed a decent mid range shot in limited minutes, but it does not explain why he didn't play last season.

4. Will Diaw return to his 2005-06 effectiveness? Last season he came to camp out of condition and never really returned to his previous level of performance. This year he has lost weight for the Eurobasket bournament and when that was over, the Suns sent a conditioning coach to Paris to work with him. It looks like the Suns plan to use Diaw exclusively on the inside the season where he seems to be better suited than at small forward. All of ths give hope that he will return to his former effectivenss, but that remains to be seen.

5. Will Banks emerge as a useful player or just get buried again on the bench? Banks had a couple of good outings in summer league and has spent much of the summer in informal workouts with Nash, Hill, etc. New coach Jay Humphries has promised to make Banks his special project. None the less, the rumors that the Suns are constantly trying to unload him remain strong, so it is far from clear that he's changed the team's opinion of him.

6 Will either of rookies make an impact? Tucker and Strawberry are both super athletes with very good physical strenth, team orientation, and weak shooting skills. In college, Tucker was very good at finishing at the basket and Strawberry was an elite on-the-ball defender. Strawberry showed some promise as a distributor point guard and Tucker had some summer league games where he scored a lot. Will any of this translate into regular season minutes?

7. Will Stoudemire get better on defense? Amare's summer with the USA team gave him a chance to practice against Dwight Howard and under the direction McMillian. This remains a major focus on what the team is looking for from him. Without KT, there is no "safety net" for Amare to get by with inconsistent defense.

8. Will the Marion stink cause problems? All of this will be overshadowed by Marion, but unless he's even dumber than he sounds the Suns can expect him to do much of what he's always done. The rest of the team seems prepared to live with his complaining as long as he continues to get the job done on court. But if he becomes even more selfish than in the past, the situation could change.

This seems like a lot of questions for a team that is so highly rated, but this is due to how small the margin for error there is when going for a championship.

Shooting A Key to Banks

Last season, a major issue for Banks was his shooting. He was very good when going to the basket, but not when shooting the ball.

2006-07
Layups: 47 of 77 for 60% (40.1% of total shots)
Short: 1 of 8 for 12.5%
Mid: 31 of 82 for 37.9%
3 pointers: 5 of 29 for 17.2% (14.8% of total shots)

2005-06
Layups: 105 of 178 59.0% (38.3% for the total shots)
Short: 7 of 25 for 28%
Mid: 82 of 202 for 40.6%
3 pointers: 22 of 60 for 36.7% (12.9% of total shots)

One odd thing about guys playing relatively small minutes is how much difference just a few shots can make. If Banks had hit his three pointers like he did in 2005-06, he'd have had 6 more made shots and raised his percentages to 45.9% overall.

Only 40% of his shots were layups, but 54.3% of the made shots and 50.9% of shooting points were from layups.

FT - 48
Layups 44 * 2 = 88
Other 35 * 2 = 70
Three 5 * 3 = 15
-----------------------
Total 221

Banks was actually better at getting to the basket than Barbosa on roughly the same percentage of shots. But Leandro was a very good long range shooter including 43.4% for three on 190 of 438; while Banks just wasn't. One odd element is that Leandro was only marginally better than Banks on his mid range shooting, 40.1% versus 37.9% for Banks; but Leandro's three point shooting was exceptional.

This is why Banks' 4 of 5 for three in the Las Vegas game is such a big deal. If he can learn to shoot threes and play within the scheme, he could become very valuable.

Taking Pressure Off of Nash

One comment by Steve Kerr in his ESPN interview by Simmons noted that the Suns look for Grant Hill and Boris Diaw to take some of the pressure off Nash this year. Unfortunately, Simmons made no follow up questions.

This is potentially a big deal. Since joining the Suns, the entire offense has been run through Nash and opponents have tried everything possible to stop him. The popular belief is "stop Nash and you stop the Suns".

It's easier to say "stop Nash" than to do it. The Spurs put master defender Bruce Bowen on him and really rouged Nash up. But for the series, Nash averaged 21.3 ppg on 48.4% shooting and shot 13 of 25 for three. Yet Nash stil dished out 12.7 assists per game.

If Bowen cannot stop Nash, it is hard to imagine anyone can. But there is a price. More and more teams are using double teams and simply pounding on him to wear him out. Some critics image the problem with Nash wearing out at the end of seasons is due to the number of minutes he plays. It isn't. It's the continual pounding he goes through.

How can Hill help? Back in the late 90's when Grant Hill was with the Pistons, he played quite a bit at point guard. From 1994-95 to 2000-01, he averaged over 5 assists per game every year including 7.3 assists per game in 1996-97.

Could Hill play point guard like Nash does? That's not feasible. But he could take some of the pressure off in the half court sets.

In the Suns offense there are three stages to what the point guard does:

1. Bring the Ball Up Court: The Suns try to bring the ball up court as quickly as possible. Barbosa is not viewed as a real point guard, but he can do that as well as anyone.

2. Early Offense: This is the part of the Suns offense which is run before the opponent's defense is set. Nash is absolutely amazing at finding the open man and making passes directly off the dribble.

3. Half Court Offense: Much of what the Suns do in the half court is run the pick and roll. Nash is outstanding at this, but it is the stage when opponents try to trap him, push him, grab him, and generally knock him about.

The idea appears to be to have Hill run the half court offense at least some of the time. This would not only cut down on the absue of Nash, but it would have at least one additional advantage. It would free up Nash to take more three point shots.

Nash is one of the top three point shooters in the NBA. Last year he finished 2nd with 45.5%. With Hill driving and kicking out to Nash, Nash would get a lot more open shots. Last year Nash ranked only 11th in three pointers made because he took fewer shots since it was Nash who was making the pass.

Will the Suns lose efficiency with Hill running the offense? Clearly no one runs the pick and roll like Nash. However, Hill is much bigger than Nash (listed at 6'8" 225 and is very good at attacking the basket. With his height, he can see over the defenders to make entry passes and overpower smaller guys when attacking the basket. He's also great at finishing at the basket. Nash averaged 66% inside the small circle, but Hill finished over 70%.

Using Hill at least part of the time in the half court offense should take some of the wear and tear on Nash's body while opening him up for more outside shooting. This could turn out to be a very big deal.

Are The Suns Counting on Banks?

In another thread there was discussion that the Suns may simply wait out PJ on the belief that he will not sign with another team. If that's the case, it confirms the suspicion that they are not focused on getting him or any other big as a rotation player. But that leaves only 7 guiys in the rotation, which is not the way Coach D'Antoni does it.

Considering who is left beyond the top seven, (Banks, Marks, Pike, Tucker, and eventually Strawberry), it is not unreasonable to think that imagine are planning to use Banks in the rotation. If true, that will be a remarkable development.

The career of Marcus Banks has been erratic. The 12th pick in 2003, he was immediately traded to the Celtics, but did not do well there. In his first two and a half years his stats:

2003-04 5.9 ppg on 40% shooting and 31.4% for three with 2.2 assists in 17.1 minutes.

2004-05 4.6 ppg on 40.2% and 35.6% for three and 1.9 assists in 14.1 minutes

2005-06 (18 games) 5.5 ppg on 41.3% and 31.6% for three and 1.8 assists in 14.9 minutes

By this point, Banks was considered a bust by the Boston and other east coast reporters. His bad shooting pretty much had him written off as a flop, so his trade to the Wolves was barely noticed in Boston.

However, in Minnesota, he played surprisingly well:

2005-06 (in 40 games with the Wolves) 12.0 ppg, 47.9% and 36.4% for three with 4.7 assists in 30.7 minutes. While more of a combo than a real point guard, he finally looked like a real player. But when he came to the Suns, his career took a big step backward.

The Suns are known for tracking players based on the plus/minus stats when on the court. Does the team improve against the opponent or lose ground? There are many reasons why a guy's plus/minus will be poor (good shooters who cannot defend or guys who make a lot of turnovers), but there is little doubt that bad shooting will hurt. Lst Nobember, Banks shot very badly. What is worse, his overall plus/minus for the season was an awful -13.3 http://www.82games.com/0607/0607PHO.HTM

In November, Banks shot 20 of 59 for 33.9% from the field and just 1 of 8 for three. He averaged 11.7 minutes a game. He made just 1.2 assists per game (0.10 per minute) which was well below the per minute rate of 0.15 assists per minute with the Wolves. In practical terms, Banks shot himself out of the rotation and never worked his way back in.

He shot a little better in Deember, going 9 of 19, but shot only 13 of 33 (39.9%) in January and just 1 of 8 for three. His stats in February actually picked up in the few games he played while Nash was out: 9.1 ppg on 50.8% shooting (32 of 63) in 19.4 minutes. But it wasn't enough to get him playing time the rest of the season as he had only 28 minutes total from then on.

Banks' improved shooting in February did not do anything to improve his trade value. It was widely reported that the Suns tried to trade him and could not get anybody to take him for less than two first round picks. Everyone looked at his plus/minus and knew his reputation from Boston. The Suns could not move him.

It seemed like the Suns had given up on him, but Banks spent the off season working to correct his fatal flaw: poor shooting. And to prove he had made progress, he volunteered to play on the Suns summer leage team which is rare for guy with four years in the leage. But it appears to have been a good move for him.

Summer league does not mean a lot in that the opposition is often quite poor, but Banks demonstrated that he has worked on his shooting. In the only official game, he went 13 of 19 (68.4%) and 4 of 5 for three as he scored 42 points. The next day in a scrimmage against the Pistons, he shot 7 of 8. A few weeks later, the Suns signed Jay Humphries as an assistant coach. Jay said his first priority would be to work with Banks.

Have the Suns changed their view of Banks from a liability to a rotation player? Probably, but not entirely. Humphries suggested that Banks has struggled with the transition to the Suns style. He did not elaborate, but this is probably that the Suns focus on "find the open man/shoot if you are open" style which is very different from the "beat your man off the dribble" style most teams use.

Banks can beat his man off the dribble. The key is to integrate it into the offense the way Barbosa does, rather than getting caught dribbling around on the perimeter. But if he can, he could be a big part of the Suns team this year.

One of the reasons the Suns signed Banks is that he is good man on man defender. He's not only very quick but also very strong. When matching up against the Spurs' Tony Parker, this is something the Suns really need. But this can only happen if Banks is able to shoot.

If Banks can become the guy the Suns thought they signed a year ago, it could change the way the Suns play. Banks and Barbosa are two of the fastest players in the NBA and so quick few defenders can stay in front of them. But even if a team has someone capable of staying in front on one of these guys, no one has the ability to stay in front of both.

Mavs Versus Suns On the Inside

The Suns have reputation for being an "outside shooting" team, but when it comes to low post/pick and roll plays they were far better than the Mavericks last season. This did not stop the Mavs from winning 67 games, but really came back to haunt the Mavs in the playoffs.

There is was a lot of talk that Nowitzki was becoming more of a low post threat, but that statistics do not really back that up. Using statistics taken from http://www.nba.com/hotzones/popup.html for 2006-07,
Dirk's regular season stats give a strong indication of the typ of player he is. Hot zone showed him taking 1339 shots during the regular season (officially he took 1341)

316 close (layups and tips)
379 short range
473 mid range
171 three point

In short, his his layups (post moves, tip in, pick and roll, etc) were just 23.6% of this shots. In 2005-06 Dirk took 364 close in shots of 1564, or 23.3% of his shots which was no real change.

Compare Dirk's shooting to Stoudemire's. Amare took 715 of his 1055 shoots in close, for 67.8% of his shots. Dirk hit 55.4% of his close in shots while Stoudemire hit 64.6% of his shots.

Dirk is a terrific shooter, but he is not really much of a low post threat. It is shocking to realize that Boris Diaw made more close in shots than Dirk (188 to 175), yet Dirk had 1341 total shots to Diaw's 569 shots (Diaw hit 65.3% of his close shots).

For the Mavs, their only "low post threat' was Dampier who took 328 close shots, 98.2% of this shots and hit 63.1%). Diop took 134 of 151 in close for 90.5% of his shots but hit only 49.3%.

Comparing the Suns top three inside guys with the Mavs top three is very illuminating considering the Suns play mostly small ball.

175 of 316 Dirk
207 of 328 Dampier
66 of 134 Diop
------------
448 of 778 for 57.6%

462 of 715 Stoudemire
188 of 288 Diaw
59 of 94 Thomas
-------------
709 of 1097 for 64.6%

Stoudemire along scored more close in shots that the Maverick's big three combined. The Mavericks can use their size to dominate the boards, but not when it comes to inside scoring.

Rebounding - Suns Primary Challenge

The Suns are going to need to focus on improving their rebounding this season. Losing Kurt Thomas will remove 5.7 rpg from a team that was already a net -2.3 rpg down.

Even with KT, the Suns were not a very good rebounding team. Last season they ranked #24 in net rebounding differential just behind Washington. Of playoff teams, only Toronto and Golden State ranked lower than the Suns. Only three of the top ten net rebounding teams did not make the playoffs: Knicks, Hornets, and Clippers.

None of this is new for the Suns. It is notable that the other poor rebounding playoff teams are also running teams. Releasing on the break reduces the number players staying back for the rebounds.

On the plus side, bad shooting teams tend to rebound more because they have more chances to get offensive rebounds. Two good examples are Houston which ranked 5th worst in shooting (44.5%) and 4th best in rebounding at 43.32 rpg. Cleveland was 7th in shooting at 44.7% and second in rebounding at 43.51 rpg.

Still, it is hard to win championships without good rebounding. In the final 8, only the Suns and Warriors had significantly negitive net rebounding numbers for the regular season.

Spurs +1.58
Cavs +3.65
Jazz +5.48
Pistons -0.65

Suns -2.52
Warriors -5.01
Bulls +2.78
Nets -0.56

Total emphasis on rebounding is not necesssary. The Spurs ranked only 10th in net rebounding during the regular season and actually were net -0.10 in the playoffs. But teams need to be competative on the boards and the Suns were not.

It is tempting to focus strictly on getting another big man to replace Kurt Thomas. That should help, but the bigger issue is going to be for the Suns as a team put more focus on rebounding. Everybody has to scramble for the ball.

None the less, to compete the Suns will have see improvements by Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion, and Boris Diaw. Last season KT averaged 0.31 rebounds per minute while doing a very good job of blocking out, so there is a lot to make up for.

Last season Amare upped his rebounding to 9.6 rpg in 32.8 minutes for a very good 0.293 per minute rate after being at 0.246 per minute in 2004-05. He can do it as shown by his 0.353 per minute rate in the playoffs, but he needs to bring that all the time. Equally important, he needs to do a better job of blocking out and not simply get rebounds that Marion would otherwise get.

Marion averaged 10.4 rpg in the playoffs, but that was only 0.251 per minute. During the regular season he averaged 0.26 per minute. This is a significant drop from 2005-06 when he averaged 11.8 rpg and 0.291 per minute. Some of this drop may be due to Stoudemire and more minutes by KT than the prior year; but Marion will have to get much closer to 0.3 per minute for the Suns to compete on the boards.

If Stoudemire and Marion need to improve somewhat, Diaw is going to have to improve dramatically. So far he has not proven to be even close to being an adequate rebounder. In 2005-06 he averaged 6.9 rpg or 0.19 per minute. Last year he dropped to 4.8 rpg for just 0.154 per minute (due in part to being moved to SF).

It is not that Boris cannot rebound, but he goes through periods when he just doesn't. In December he had three games with double digit rebounding, yet had two games with 0. In late February and early March he had 10 games in a row with 0 boards. There is some reason to think Diaw was struggling with back problems. If that is the case, they need him to be in better condition and healthy because he has a lot of slack he needs to make up for.

The rest of the team will have to step up their efforts to get scramble rebounds, but there is not a lot of size in the backcourt.
Grant Hill is likely to be more productive as a rebounder than Jame Jones, but his main value may as release man on the break which would permit Marion to stay back and rebound.

If the Suns hope to win a championship, they are going to have to "earn it" on the boards.

Thinking About Boris

One of the most common concerns expressed last summer was that Diaw needed the ball in his hands at the elbow. This would conflict with how Amare is used. That is exactly what happened and Diaw was not nearly as effective as he was the year before.

In 2005-06, Boris took 852 shots compred to 566 in 2006-07. Mostly he shoots layups (or other shots in close). When he shoots in close, he hits 65.3% of his attemps.

More than anything else, the Suns offense is based on spreading the floor. Sticking Boris on the wing being guarded by wing meant he had a lot further to go to get to the basket and thus plenty of time for weak side help to come over. Granted, Boris has a tendency to pass out rather than accept contact in finishing. But unless you are Barbosa, it is hard to get to the basket from that distance without contact.

In 2005-06, Boris was matched against centers from the high post. His mid range shooting was pretty good at 44.5% But his real sweet spot is the left elbow where he hit 51.6% and 53.8% in 2005-06. Opponents had to come out to guard him.

Using Boris at the high post means the Suns can still run the pick and roll, but it is somewhat different with Boris than Amare. Amare is a great finisher while Boris is more inclined to pass.. Still, Boris was not bad at getting to the basket in 2005-06 (460 attempts) and last season hit 65.3% in close.

While Boris does not finish like Amare, running the ball through the high post with Boris gives the team some other options.

1. Short jumper when the defense hangs back.
2. Attack the basket following a pump fake.
3. Drive and kick when a help defender comes over to guard.
4. Post up the defender if a small guy comes out to guard.
5. Run back door plays and other passes to cutters
6 Run the give and go using penitrators.
7. Pass to shooters who run off screens (Nash becomes another outside shooter in this scheme)

When both Boris and Amare are in the lineup, it would mean moving Amare to the left low post. If the defender comes out to deal with Diaw, it would leave Amare defended by one guy when Boris makes a dump off pass following a drive.

Errntknght and I have been talking about the need to develop a high post offense for a while (different versions though). The decision to move Diaw permanently to the high post suggests that at least something of this kind is being contemplated. If nothing else, it would create a new set of problems for defenses that try to defense the Suns by stopping Nash.

Marion Feels Unappreciated

It seems that from the minute Marion signed his contract, there has been a target on his back. He has been subject to constant criticism. It was a mistake to pay that much for a guy with his kind of skills, but he gets blamed for the contract, rather than the Colangelos.

Marion's main issue is that he's not a good "one-on-one" offensive player. Offensively, he is best used on breaks and as a cutter. His outside shooting is erratic and is not much of a ball handler. But he does the "alley oop" play better than anybody and is amazing at how quickly he can put offensive rebounds back in.

The problem is his half court one-on-one skills. Curiously enough, other than a decline in his three point shooting from early in his career, he's the same guy he was back when he signed the contract. Indeed, in orther areas of the game such as man defense he is far improved (smoother and less gambling). But offensively, his improved offense is mostly a function of the Suns scheme rather than his ono-on-one skills.

In a age when a one dimensional shooter like Lewis can get a $117 million contract, while a more talented Josh Howard gets only a four year $40 million deal and Bruce Bowen gets $4.1 million; the market is clear that one-on-one scoring is the primary basis for monster contracts. From a market standpoint, Marion is overpaid and will never live up to what people expect from a guy that expensive.

It is all about expectations. People accuse Marion of "disappearing" in the playoffs, but the stats don't support that claim. Last season Marion averaged 17.5 ppg during the regular season and averaged 15.7 ppg against the Spurs. Since the Suns averaged 10 ppg fewer points in the series, that was not a big drop in scoring. Also He shot 52.1% and 47.1% for three.

Marion averaged 9.8 rpg during the season and 10.5 ppg against the Spurs. His steals were down from 2.0 to 1.2, but his blocks were up from 1.5 to 2.3. He was given one of the most difficult defensive assignments in the NBA and still averaged 10.5 rpg.

In short, the claim Marion disappeared is a myth. All that happened is that the situation changed and the Suns needed more offense from the SF position. It's a variation on the old joke, "If you're so rich, why aren't you a better scorer?"

But he isn't a great one-on-one scorer and that's what is most valued. As long as that is how he is evaluated, it is why he feels he is not appreciated. Now for me, I'd happily give up the appreciation for $16 million, but NBA players can find all kinds of things to gripe about.

Marion Feels Unappreciated

It seems that from the minute Marion signed his contract, there has been a target on his back. He has been subject to constant criticism. It was a mistake to pay that much for a guy with his kind of skills, but he gets blamed for the contract, rather than the Colangelos.

Marion's main issue is that he's not a good "one-on-one" offensive player. Offensively, he is best used on breaks and as a cutter. His outside shooting is erratic and is not much of a ball handler. But he does the "alley oop" play better than anybody and is amazing at how quickly he can put offensive rebounds back in.

The problem is his half court one-on-one skills. Curiously enough, other than a decline in his three point shooting from early in his career, he's the same guy he was back when he signed the contract. Indeed, in orther areas of the game such as man defense he is far improved (smoother and less gambling). But offensively, his improved offense is mostly a function of the Suns scheme rather than his ono-on-one skills.

In a age when a one dimensional shooter like Lewis can get a $117 million contract, while a more talented Josh Howard gets only a four year $40 million deal and Bruce Bowen gets $4.1 million; the market is clear that one-on-one scoring is the primary basis for monster contracts. From a market standpoint, Marion is overpaid and will never live up to what people expect from a guy that expensive.

It is all about expectations. People accuse Marion of "disappearing" in the playoffs, but the stats don't support that claim. Last season Marion averaged 17.5 ppg during the regular season and averaged 15.7 ppg against the Spurs. Since the Suns averaged 10 ppg fewer points in the series, that was not a big drop in scoring. Also He shot 52.1% and 47.1% for three.

Marion averaged 9.8 rpg during the season and 10.5 ppg against the Spurs. His steals were down from 2.0 to 1.2, but his blocks were up from 1.5 to 2.3. He was given one of the most difficult defensive assignments in the NBA and still averaged 10.5 rpg.

In short, the claim Marion disappeared is a myth. All that happened is that the situation changed and the Suns needed more offense from the SF position. It's a variation on the old joke, "If you're so rich, why aren't you a better scorer?"

But he isn't a great one-on-one scorer and that's what is most valued. As long as that is how he is evaluated, it is why he feels he is not appreciated. Now for me, I'd happily give up the appreciation for $16 million, but NBA players can find all kinds of things to gripe about.

Marion Feels Unappreciated

It seems that from the minute Marion signed his contract, there has been a target on his back. He has been subject to constant criticism. It was a mistake to pay that much for a guy with his kind of skills, but he gets blamed for the contract, rather than the Colangelos.

Marion's main issue is that he's not a good "one-on-one" offensive player. Offensively, he is best used on breaks and as a cutter. His outside shooting is erratic and is not much of a ball handler. But he does the "alley oop" play better than anybody and is amazing at how quickly he can put offensive rebounds back in.

The problem is his half court one-on-one skills. Curiously enough, other than a decline in his three point shooting from early in his career, he's the same guy he was back when he signed the contract. Indeed, in orther areas of the game such as man defense he is far improved (smoother and less gambling). But offensively, his improved offense is mostly a function of the Suns scheme rather than his ono-on-one skills.

In a age when a one dimensional shooter like Lewis can get a $117 million contract, while a more talented Josh Howard gets only a four year $40 million deal and Bruce Bowen gets $4.1 million; the market is clear that one-on-one scoring is the primary basis for monster contracts. From a market standpoint, Marion is overpaid and will never live up to what people expect from a guy that expensive.

It is all about expectations. People accuse Marion of "disappearing" in the playoffs, but the stats don't support that claim. Last season Marion averaged 17.5 ppg during the regular season and averaged 15.7 ppg against the Spurs. Since the Suns averaged 10 ppg fewer points in the series, that was not a big drop in scoring. Also He shot 52.1% and 47.1% for three.

Marion averaged 9.8 rpg during the season and 10.5 ppg against the Spurs. His steals were down from 2.0 to 1.2, but his blocks were up from 1.5 to 2.3. He was given one of the most difficult defensive assignments in the NBA and still averaged 10.5 rpg.

In short, the claim Marion disappeared is a myth. All that happened is that the situation changed and the Suns needed more offense from the SF position. It's a variation on the old joke, "If you're so rich, why aren't you a better scorer?"

But he isn't a great one-on-one scorer and that's what is most valued. As long as that is how he is evaluated, it is why he feels he is not appreciated. Now for me, I'd happily give up the appreciation for $16 million, but NBA players can find all kinds of things to gripe about.

Making Layups

The Suns are widely thought of as jump shooting team, but that is not really true. The Suns ranked 7th in the NBA in the number of "in the paint" baskets: layups, dunks, tip-ins, etc.

What is more important is that they were far and away the most accurate at 64.6%. No other team averaged over 60%. The Spurs averaged 59.5% on 103 fewer in the paint shots than the Suns. (Stats taken from http://www.nba.com/hotzones/popup.html)

Suns 1633 of 2573 for 64.6%
Bobcats 1520 of 2844 for 53.2%
Bucks 1752 of 3103 for 56.5%
Bulls 1303 of 2460 for 53.1%
Cavs 1560 of 2772 for 56.3%
Celtics 1474 of 2803 for 52.6%
Clippers 1287 of 2271 for 56.7%
Grizzlies 1625 of 2911 for 55.8%
Hawks 1466 of 2719 for 53.9%
Hornets 1589 of 2950 for 53.9%
Heat 1542 of 2608 for 59.1%
Jazz 1634 of 2844 for 57.5%
Kings 1444 of 2625 for 55.0%
Knicks 1780 of 3186 for 55.9%
Lakers 1602 of 2807 for 57.1%
Magic 1661 of 2847 for 58.3%
Mavs 1238 of 2208 for 56.1%
Nets 1419 of 2547 for 55.7%
Nuggets 1814 of 3074 for 59.0%
Pacers 1367 of 2538 for 53.9%
Pistons 1317 of 2345 for 56.2%
Raptors 1335 of 2293 for 58.2%
Rockets 1319 of 2457 for 53.7%
Sixers 1469 of 2588 for 56.8%
Spurs 1530 of 2572 for 59.5%
Sonics 1600 of 2846 for 56.2%
Wolves 1311 of 2335 for 56.1%
Blazers 1469 of 2714 for 54.1%
Warriors 1846 of 3197 for 57.7%
Wizzards 1496 of 2665 for 56.1%

As expected, the big number came from Stoudemire, Marion, and Barbosa. What may be surpising is to find that Diaw ranked ahead of Nash in terms of inside shots taken and percentage made.

Banks 47 of 77 for 61.0%
Barbosa 225 of 400 for 56.9%
Bell 73 of 131 for 55.7%
Burke 16 of 27 for 59.3%
Diaw 188 of 288 for 65.3%
James Jones 15 of 26 for 57.7%
Jumaine Jones 2 of 4 for 50%
Marion 371 of 547 for 67.8%
Marks 1 of 2 for 50%
Nash 170 of 256 for 66.4%
Pike 2 of 3 for 66.6%
Rose 2 of 3 for 66.6%
Stoudemire 462 of 715 for 64.4
Thomas 59 of 94 for 62.8%

Overall was 1633 of 2573 for 64.6%

Layups are a measure of how aggressive players are at attacking the basket, seen as a percentage of shots


Banks 39.3%
Barbosa 36.0%
Bell 13.8%
Burke 41.5%
Diaw 50.6%
James Jones 5.9%
Jumaine Jones 7.8%
Marion 51.1%
Marks 33.3%
Nash 26.4%
Pike 12.0%
Rose 3.5%
Stoudemire 67.8%
Thomas 36.3%
Total 37.5%

[As a side note, Grant Hill was very effective close to the basket last season, shooting 189 of 269 for 70.3%. The 269 shots as a percentage of his total of 660 shots which was 40.8%. As advertised he is also a very good mid range shooter which is why his overall shooting percentage is 51.8%.]

Obviously the Suns are better known for the great three point shooting 785 of 1965; but their 2355 points for three is dwarfed by their 3266 points from layups.

Improving the Half Court Offense

Last season the Suns had the best offense in the NBA by every category. Yet they would go through periods when they were not very effective. The Suns biggest problen is that they score in spurts but they wwould go through periods when it seems like they get shut down and give up big runs. 3rd quarter in Game 6 of the Spurs series was an unmitigated disaster.

The Suns offense stagnates when they are not getting good shots in their early offense. They get too predictable and lacked the patience to get open shots. In particular, the longer the Suns are very poor with the clock running out especially in the last four seconds of the clock: (stats are from http://www.82games.com/0607/0607PHO3.HTM

Suns 21+ seconds: 9% of shots and 40.2% shooting
Spurs 21+ seconds: 16% of shots and 46.5% shooting

During the regular season that's not terribly important, but in the playoffs where the refs let so many fouls go without being called and thus delaying shots, this is fatal.

One of the biggest problems of the Spurs series was the lack of productivity from Barbosa. Whether it was due to his injury or the Spurs defense, without his offense coming off the bench, the Suns could not sustain momentum. But beyond that, the Suns offense was too streaky and too vulnerable to physical defense. But this coming year they should become better. One obvious reason will be Hill.

During the Spurs series, Bowen was moved over to cover Nash because the Spurs did not fear Jones and Bell is not a threat unless left open. This meant the Spurs could use a weak defender like Finley on Jones with Parker available to deal with Bell.

Finley cannot guard Hill and Manu Ginobili would struggle. The Suns never could exploit Finley's defense (with his slow foot speed) because Jones is strictly a catch and shoot guy. Hill would just chew Finley up and Parker is just too small to deal with Hill. In other words, Bowen has to cover Hill.

Bowen on Hill would mean putting Parker on Nash, which is not nearly as effective. But even that is hard to sustain once Barbosa (the Brazilian Blur) comes it, because it means Finley or Manu will have to deal with the Blur.

Against the small ball Suns, this presents some serious problems for the Spurs. Assuming Oberto or Elson are put on Amare, they either leave Amare alone at the elbow or come out to guard him. But this leaves Duncan guarding Marion or (as is more likely) just leaving Marion unguarded.

In the Suns big ball lineup, Marion was guarded by a wing or Parker and often does not produce much offense. But against a small ball lineup by the Suns the Spurs would have little choice but to leave Marion uncovered.

The most obvious way to exploit Marion being left open is to do "drive and dump" plays. In those cases, when Duncan comes out of the inside circle to defense the man attacking the basket. Marion cuts in from the weak side for a dump pass and a jam. Even if the path is not completely open to the basket, Marion is pretty good at very short jump shots.

Marion is not a good three point shooter, but he is "less bad" when left wide open in the corner. If he hits even a moderate percentage of threes to force opponents to come out to guard him, it will force opponents to go small.

Some of the time the Suns will go to a lineup with Amare and Boris. My guess is that this year D'Antoni will use Boris exclusively at center and move Amre to PF in place of Marion. Diaw is not the finisher that Amare is, but would be vastly more effective at doing dump passes off the pick and roll. For the Spurs big defense, it would mean either Duncn comes out to guard Diaw or it forces them to use Duncan to guard Stoudemire and risk foul trouble.

If the Spurs drop back into a zone, the Suns are still the best three point shooting team in the NBA. With Diaw as high post center, he has the tools for tearing zones up with backdoor passes and open jumpers from the foul line..

In the end, the goal for the Suns is to force their opponent to go small. In the Spurs series they failed to do that. Adding Hill may change that dynamic even if he does not have a big series scoring. The Spurs defense is designed to take away primary offensive options, but the Suns may have more options than ever.

Sports Accounting

When talking about "making money" in discussing sports team, it is very important to keep several related concepts straight.

Accounting Profit
Economic Profit
Cash Flow
Adjsted Cash Flow

Accounting Profit: Accounting profit is what is reported according to generally accepted accounting principles. This number involves things write-offs of intangibles such as depreciation, goodwill, ietc. and does not include unrealized capital gains.

Sports accounting is very complicated because of the way player contracts are valued for both tax purposes and reporting purposes. Ordinarily, the only things that can be written off are physical assets. But when buying a sports team, the player contracts at the time of the purchase are considered assets that can be written off against taxes. Since sports teams are generally organized as partnerships. This means that accounting losses can be used to offset profits from other sources.

Economic Profit is the total increase in shareholder value net of all dividends and capital infusions. It includes all the values received including unrealized capital gains (the team is worth more but not sold), the tax benefits of accounting loses, and all other benefits transferred to the owners.

Cash Flow is all the cash received after all cash payments including interest. It is the actual cash received and the actual cash paid out. A team can show major accounting loses while having large economic profits while cash flow could net zero. It takes cash to pay bills, so high economic profit does not help if the team has to borrow money to pay bills.

Adjusted Cash Flow is relevant when depreciation is involved. In theory, depreciaiton is what is needed to replenish physical assets.

Questions about whether the Suns are "making money" or not cannot be answered with determining which definition of "making money" is being used. Due to the increase in value of major sports teams, it is quite likely the Suns are experiencing economic profits but may not be doing so well generating positive adjusted cash flow.

Teams that do no produce positive adjusted cash flow end up having to borrow or dilute equity by selling pieces as a way to keep going. If they cannot, then their only option is to sell to somebody with adequate outside income that can use the tax losses. As a rule, ownership groups do not want to be forced to sell out.

However, owners are likely to cry "we're losing money" when all they are referring to is accounting losses. But cash flow is a better measure, but it can also be distorted by selling players or other assets for cash. This is a process that in accounting terms is considered an "extraordinary" gain and reported differently.

[NOTE: My undergraduate degree was in economics and my MBA was in finance and accounting.]

Playoff Rules And The Officials

The officials call the playoffs differently than the regular season. Beyond the ccurrent gambling scandal, this is one of the reasons why the NBA officials get so much criticism. No one knows what the rules are because they are not what is written in the regulations.

No rule is less consistently enforced than the rule against "hand checking". Hand checking is where a perimeter defender pushes the man with ball in order to obstruct his movement. This is permitted in international basketball, but is against the rules in the NBA "some of the time". Like the rule against grabbing players cutting across the lane, the hand checking rule was designed to opne the game up and permit a more free flowing style of game.

The problem with the hand checking rule is that defense oriented coaches hate it. Their strategy is to do hand checking from the opening whistle and dare the referees to call it. Some do, but most referees seem unwilling to foul everybody out so they eventually they let it go - most of the time.

One of the ways to get the referees to call fouls is by flopping. Manu Ginobili of the Spurs is widely regarded as the NBA's premier flopper in that he will fall over from the slightest contact. So while teammate Bruce Bowen will continually hand check and bump his man without calls, Manu falls at the slightest tap.

Some of Ginobili's flopping is just manipulation of the referees. But some of it is the inconsistency in the way the rules are enforced. In international basketball where hand checks are permitted, they actually outlaw flopping offensive players. (Taking charges is a different issue).

The NBA rules writers apparently wanted to eliminate hand checking, but international rules had the advantage that they could be enforced evenly. The NBA rules are not and it creates a tremendous opportunity for referees to manipulate the game. Something that is a foul according to the rules but only enforced in the exception makes it impossible to catch referees fixing the games or point spreads.

This inconsistency in enforcement of the rules is a double whammy on the Suns. First, allowing a large amount of contact on Nash really hurts the Suns offense. Second calling fouls on the Suns defenders for using the same tactics on Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili makes them very vulnerable to dribble drive penitration. Obviously the Spurs have more experience at using hand checks and lots of contact without fouls being called, but by calling games differently in the playoffs it is hard for other teams to learn what they can get away with.

As much as I would prefer the curernt hand checking rules to be enforced, I suspect going to the international rules might be preferable. It seems obvious that the NBA referees are incapable of enforcing the current hand check rules consistently. The NBA cannot afford to let referees have discretion which might very well be for sale.

Boris to Play a Bigger Role This Year

By adding Grant Hill and trading away Kurt Thomas, the Suns' rotation is going to be radically changed. No player will be more dramatically impacted than Boris Diaw.

The Boris Diaw story is a curious one. Drafted by the Hawks in 2003, he spent two "forgettable" seasons on the hopeless Hawks. He suffered trying to be a team player on a team of guys trying to pad their stats to go elsewhere. When the Suns asked for him in the Joe Johnson trade, the Hawks were shocked because he was not very effective.

Things changed during the summer of 2005 when he led his French national team to the Eurobasket final four and was just edged out by
Dirk Nowitzki for their MVP. What surprised people was how well he played on the inside against NBA players like Kirilenko and Okur.

In 2005-06, injuiries to Amare Stoudemire and later Kurt Thomas left Boris to play center, where he proved to be remarkably effective. His statistics improved dramatically:

2004-05 18.2 minutes (with the Hawks)
4.8 ppg
42.2% shooting
2.6 rpg
2.3 apg

2005-06 35.5 minutes
13.3 ppg
52.6%
6.9 rpg
6.2 apg

He was selected as "Most Improved Player" and got a great contract. But om 2006-07 his statistics went down, although nothing like his Hawks performance.

2006-07 31.1 minutes
9.7 ppg
53.8%
4.3 rpg
4.8 apg

In 2005-06 while playing center, Boris played mostly at the "elbow" (corner of lane next to the foul line) where he was used in the pick and roll as well as at the high post. His mid range shot was good enough to force bigger guys come out to defend him, whereby he could simply drive the basket. When smaller guys tried to defend him, he could take them down to the bakset and post them up. If anything, Boris showed more low post moves than anyone else on the team.

What happened last season? Some of it was that he came to camp out of condition and was not as quick as he had been. But the other problem was more subtle, in 2006-07 he was being asked to play small forward rather than center.

Boris Diaw looks like a small forward. He's 6'8" and under 230 pounds. But on the floor, he does not have a comparative advantage to most small forwards. Typically opposing small forwards are quicker than he is. At the same time, he's not aggressive at making shots and tends to pass rather than attack. At small forward this seriously limits his offense.

As long as Amare Stoudemire and Kurt Thomas were playing center and Shawn Marion was at power forward, Boris was forced to play a position he was not that good at. Eventually, coach D'Antoni made the decision to start James Jones at small forward, but this did not really solve the problem of Boris.

How were they going to use Boris in the coming season. If they moved Boris to center backing up Amare Stoudemire, then what happens to Kurt Thomas? With Hill getting much of the minutes at small forward so that Marion gets most of the power forward minutes, it was going to be hard to get Kurt Thomas many minutes if Diaw was to play much. The most likely scenerio was that Kurt Thomas would see his minutes drop to closer to 10 per game from 18.

If this scenerio is accurate, it becomes all the more disconcerting to pay $8 million in salary and $8 million in luxury tax for a guy who will play at most 10 minutes a game. So while the trade was heavily motivated by the money, it was also motiviated by the declining role of Kurt Thomas that was being anticipated.

None the less, can Boris get the job done? On offense there seems to be little doubt he can. The real question is on defense where the jury is still out. In 2005-06 the team defense fell dramatically when Kurt Thomas was injured. Boris was a below average rebounder for an inside guy and was not physically able to keep guys like Brand off the glass.

Since the end of the season, Diaw has been working out with Stoudemire in preparation for his stint with the French national team. Kerr has had a lot of time to watch him try to defend against Stoudemire one on one. It is not clear what he has been seeing, but it must have been enough to plunge into the unknown by dumping Kurt Thomas.

It is a gamble that could easily blow up in Kerr's face - even before playing the Spurs. In a very real sense, Steve Kerr is betting the season on Diaw's performance at center. I would never do that, but I certainly hope he knows what he's doing.

Committed to Speed

Fan reaction to the trade of Kurt Thomas to Seattle has ranged from disappointment to bitter outrange. No one doubted that he is grossly overpaid, but he played pretty well in Spurs series and it leaves the Suns with a vey small lineup.

The general reaction has been that the Suns are being cheap, which is probably true. What has not been discussed is just how big a committment the team has made to speed.

The Suns started with a fast team with some amazing athletes, but in exchanging Jones for Hill and Kurt Thomas for Sean Marks (apparently), it looks like they are going for even greater speed or at least open court skills.

It's not clear this will work against the Spurs, but that is mostly due to Amare Stoudemire's inability to stay out of foul trouble. It seems clear the Suns are making a committment to find a way to have Amare guard Tim Duncan one on one when Duncan is on the floor. If that fails, they must be hoping that Sean Marks' experience as Duncan's backup will be helpful.

The small "speed" lineup is a big gamble, but if it works, the rewards are huge.

The central problem with the way the Suns lineup is structured. Shawn Marion is far better at power forward than small forward. At small forward, his limitations as a shooter and "make his own shot" scorer create a problem. Without a major offensive threat at power forward, Marion is too easy for other small forwards to guard.

But with Marion at power forward, the Suns create a major mismatch against opponents with big, but slow power forwards. Against slower power forwards he has little trouble getting by them for mid range shots or to get to the basket. He's remarkably good at fronting big guys and is a very good rebounder.

Typically a team like the Spurs would like to use their power forwards (Oberto and Elson) to guard the primary low post threat (such as Stoudemire) and not worry too much about the second big. Against the Suns big lineup, Duncan is left to simply hang around the basket and block shots. They never really worried about Kurt Thomas beating them.

The problem with defending against the Suns' small lineup is that it leaves Marion completely undefended, since the opponent's bigs cannot stay with Marion. For the Spurs, it means either using the PF's on Marion or Duncan. In short, if they can't force the Suns out of their small lineup, the Suns create major problems.

Two years ago the Spurs tried to go small against the Suns. The Suns lacked Joe Johnson and Q Richardson had a terrible series, but the solution of Duncan guarding Stoudemire was not very effective. They won, but it is not so clear their small lineup would be so effective with current Suns with a lot more offense.

With or without Kurt Thomas, it seems clear that coach Mike D'Antoni wants to force the Spurs to go small. Unlike the Mavericks who have no small ball lineup to speak of, the Spurs can play small. But they are not geared to play small.

Can the Suns figure a way to defense Duncan without Stoudemire getting into instant foul trouble? That is the $16 million question, because if they can't, there is little chance of them getting by the Spurs. But if they can for the Spurs to play small, the Spurs will have a vastly harder time stopping the Suns.

Referee Betting Scandal Should Be Used To End Subjectivity

The FBI investigation of a referee who is accuses of gambling on games he has been covering is a huge story.

The League office has been in such self righteous denial about problems with the refs for so long, this is going to be huge. With all of their reviews of refs and grading, the fact that calls remain so terribly subjective is a terric opportunity for refs to cheat.

The sad part is that Commissioner Stern et al are likely to focus on "off court" policing rather than the underlying problem which is the excessive subjectivity in the way games are called. If they don't address it, the NBA will suffer irreversable harm.

My suggestions include:

1. CONSISTENCY: Set standards for what is a foul and what isn't independent of who it made by, who it is against, where the game is being played, and whether it is during the regular season or the playoffs. Fine officials who deviate from these standards.

2. CHANGE THE RULES TO DEFINE THE DEGREE OF CONTACT: One guy gets mugged without a call while a "ticky tack" call gets called at the other end. One of the reasons flopping is such a big deal is that it is a way players can draw foul calls on incidental contact.

3 BE PREPARED TO KEEP CALLING FOULS: Almost every basketball brawl has been due to players getting upset when they are clearly being fouled and it is not being called. As games get intense, it seems like the refs stop trying to control the physical contact. This is not only causing the on court problems but also give the refs a huge opportunity to cheat.

4. CONSIDER ADDING A FOURTH OFFICIAL: The pace of the game is such that officials are constantly out of position and making calls from 40 feet away or more. A fourth official would reduce the number of "blind spots" and thus the excuses for missing calls.

There is no way that anybody is going to be completely happy with the way games are called, but they will accept the calls more easily if the excessive subjectivity is reduced. The fact that the league did not catch this says a lot.

No Trades Until Camp Expected

Nothing gets more response from fans than trade discussions. Much of June was spent talking about trading for Kevin Garnett (KG) with every possible option explored. In the end it never happened because the Timberwolves wanted more than the Suns were willing to give up.

Recent reports are that the Suns kept Amare Stoudeimre informed about the discussions and the he definitely was NOT being offered in the deal. There is nothing firm, but it looks like the Suns offered Shawn Marion, Kurt Thomas, Marcus Banks and the Atlanta pick for KG either straight up or in a three way trade. This offer is undoubtedly still on the table, but it seems clear that the Wolves want something different. As much as the Suns would like to get KG, it is unlikely they will sweeten the deal short of giving up a future first round pick.

In theory anybody could be traded, but it seems unlikely that there will be any deals until training camp or later.

BANKS: In two games Banks first scored 42 points and in the second shot 7 of 8 from the field (officially a scrimmage). He had a minor injury and was held out for the next couple of games. When asked about him, both Weber and D'Antoni talked about how talented he is. Weber also talked about the transition to the Suns system. At this point they just don't know if Banks is the guy they thought they were signing or if this was just a flash in the pan. But if he has made real progress, it would not make sense to trade him until his value is more obvious to the rest of the league. Two games won't do it, but training camp might.Of course if he has made HUGE progress they might want to hang onto him. None of the other deep bench players are proven offensive threats and the Suns do need some actual depth beyond the main eight. But if the last several months are an indication, it would be hard to trade him unless he shows some serious progress.

KURT THOMAS: There have been rumors that the Sonics are interested in Kurt Thomas (KT) and due to having a trade exception (TE) could actually take him without the Suns having to take back a contract. This deal could get the Suns out of the luxury tax.

However, this would make the already small Suns absolutely tiny. KT did a credible job against Duncan in the playoffs when no one else did. It is possible the Suns would feel free to sign a free agent if KT was off the books, but only PJ Brown is even close to being good enough and there is not much evidence that he’d come to Phoenix even if KT was traded.

PIKE: Eric Piatkowski has only a veteran minimum contract so he could get traded to a team needing a three point shooting specialist. This is feasible only if the Suns decide they need another inside banger and are not prepared to carry more than 13 guys.

So other than unloading Pike, I am doubtful there would be any deals before training camp that would make a lot of sense. First, the Suns don't really know what they've got in the rookies. Second, a lot of good pickups when teams decide that somebody is redundant right before the start of the season.For the Suns, it is hard to make mega deals anyway.

The two most popular guys to trade are Marion whose big contract, and ability to opt out next summer, make him hard to move for value. And Diaw who is subject to the base year contract situation which kills most deals. (Contracts have to match up, but players in the first year of their contract count for 100% of their salary on the team that gets the player but only 50% on the trading team).

At this point I think the Suns are convinced their starting eight has a real chance of winning a championship. Therefore I would not expect them to do anything dramatic until well after the season started at the earliest.

Kerr's Next Tasks

So far Kerr has not made any major blunders. Considering all the land mines involved in unloading Jones before having Hill being confired, he's either lucky or "cheated" with some back door contact. The deal with the Bobcats was trumped by a bizzare move by the Warrriors. And only time will tell if Tucker is the guy the Suns should have taken, but he seems like a reasonable choice.

Other than being committed to give a roster slot to Marks who seems more like an assistant coach than a player, there is not much to complain about. Sure he could have traded Amare for KG, but that would not have been a particularly popular move nor necessarily a good one.

So other than looking for a banger to replace Burke, Kerr's remaining tasks may be more focused on getting D'Antoni to make some changes. Many people believe D'Antoni is so stubborn that he just refuses to do what is necessary to win the championship. IMHO those charges are unfair, but it still may take some nudging by Kerr.

1. Devloping Depth: D'Antoni has an extremely quick hook, so if guys don't do something the instant they hit the floor they get yanked. However, with a Hill being older and having a history of injuries, D'Antoni needs to give Tucker the minutes so he can be ready. Tucker is mature guy for a rookie and can play defense, so he should not a big liability. But Kerr may have to remind D'Antoni that every game is not a playoff game.

2. Increase the Diversity of the Offense: One of the big atrractions to getting Hill will be to diversify the offense so it is not just Nash making plays. The Spurs showed how limited that can be if the refs allow them to mug Nash. Adding alternative tactics is important so they will be harder to defense. This may include so isolaiton plays, using Diaw at the high post, designing two man games with Amare at the low post, etc.. But in any case, Kerr needs to remind D'Antoni that the season is just preparation for the real season.

3. Develop a Big Ball Lineup: It was not a great idea to wait until the playoffs to play a big like KT with Amare. The Suns don't need to this against most opponents, but when it is needed they must be ready.

4. Increase the Emphasis on Defense: The Suns have not yet hired a replacement for Iaveroni and should focus on getting a defense guru. D'Antoni needs to buy into the need to play defense the entire game and not just in spurts. Kerr is hardly the ideal preacher of defense, but someone has to keep it at the top of the priority list.

I know there are many people who think D'Antoni will simply refuse to change, but he is no fool. Kerr's job will be to nudge him in the right direction.

Becoming More Efficient

One of the most frustrating aspects of the Suns is their imability to hang onto big leads. Commentators say the Suns can overcome a big lead and give up a big lead faster than any other team in the NBA. This inability to hang onto big leads is one of the reasons why they can't seem to play their backups. No lead is safe.

The problem is that the Suns style lets teams back into the game. It is a common sight, the Suns get up by twenty and an opponet comes down and hits three to get it back to 17. The next three possession the Suns brick quick three pointers and in less than two minutes the lead is down to under 10 so Nash is brought back into the game.

If things go well, the Suns will hit a few threes and the lead gets back up, but nothing is ever safe. IMHO, the Suns need to change their style once a team starts to make a run rather than continuing with their seven seconds or less approach. To me, stopping runs by opponents is the number one thing the Suns can do to ensure victory and also reducing starter minutes.

When the Suns are behind big, then it makes sense to shoot fast to get the game going. But when they are ahead, slowing the pace and making high percentage shots is the best way to dampen the mood of the other team.

When teams are behind, they tend to gamble more in an attempt to get steals. This is generally the best time to attack the basket to get layups and attract fouls. Standing around watching the Suns shoot foul shots is a real wet blanket on the enthusiasm generated by a run. After a while, trading baskets or staying even on the scoreboard gets frustrating and their energy falls. But even if the other team creeps up, slowing the game down means the starters can rest longer.

None of this matters if the Suns cannot score in a slower paced offense. But with a healthy Amare and the addition of Hill, this should be a much more efficient half court offense. They should make use of it and not just shoot themelves out of big leads.

Three Point Shooting

DX (Draft Express) criticizes the drafting of Tucker becasue he's not a three point shooter. The Suns trade Jones who is a good three point shooter and sign Hill who is not. At the same time, Banks shoots 4 of 5 for three on Monday after shooting only 5 of 29 last season.

If Tucker learns to shoot, he's considered a steal at #29. The question is whether the Weber and the Suns coaching staff can teach guys who are not long distance shooters to hit their threes. My guess is that it does not happen over night, but if Banks can be taught then anybody can be taught.

My impression is that three point shooting is like swinging a golf club. The first step is to get the right form and mechanics (which is why Marion doesn't improve). After that, it is repeated practice and maintaining focus.

A lot of defense oriented coaches do not like their team to shoot three pointers. The Magic for example took only 962 three point shots compared to 1965 by the Suns. Almost 30% of the Magic three point shots were by Turkoglu. Three point shootinw as not emphasized on the Magic and they certainly did not run an offense designed to creae opportunities to shoot the three. I doubt Hill worked on his three point shooting.

BTW, the Spurs shot 1561 three pointers. I'd guess that shooting threes is a function of both good three point shooters and a system that gets the shooters open shots. The Spurs have added shooters and have focused on kicking out when they are open.


Can Hill be taught to shoot the three? Tony Parker is a guy who was not considered a three point threat until this year when he raised his three point average from a carer 31.8% to 39.5%. Of course It was only 15 of 38, but it was enough to force opponents to come out to guard him. But his 4 of 7 in the finals was still pretty important.

Last season Hill took 12 three point shots, which is just under 1/3 the number Parker took. If he's going to shoot any, he needs to be more accurate and it would not take many more to make teams come out to defend him.

NBA Offenses Improving?

I was puzzled by finding that the Suns opponent's shooting percentage in 2004-05 was 44.5% and in 2006-07 was 45.7%; yet it certainly seemed like the Suns were playing better defense than when Q Richardson was on the team and KT wasn't.

But apparently the Suns weren't the only team to have a change in defense shooting percentage. In 2004-05, the Spurs held opponents to 42.6% while last season they held them to 44.3%.

It sure seems like shooting was up league wide. In 2004-05, only 7 shot better than 45.8%. This year 14 teams shot 46% or better.

In 2004-05, there were four teams that held opponents to under 43% and another 5 that held opponents under 44%. This year there were only two teams that held opponents to under 44%.

I don't have a theory as to what has changed, but I think it is interesting.

Poor Year to be an RFA

Last summer I argued that there was little risk in waiting to extend Diaw because there was so little likelyhood that any team would offer more than the Suns could match. If anything this summer is even worse to be an RFA (Restricted Free Agent) than I projected.

Unless I'm missing something, there have been no RFA offers from other teams so far this summer. Anderson Varejao has had some interest from teams like the Griz, but, nothing has come of it. Andray Blatche's name comes up, but there are no reports of direct negotiations let alone signings.

As it is, there are not many teams with cap space left; Charlotte and Milwaukee being the only two and neither seems like great prospects for making a "you won't match this" offer to either guy.The growing reluctance of teams to overpay RFA's may be due to the best guys being already taken off the market through extensions. But it could be that teams don't like the economics.

Why Is It So Hard To Play Suns Basketball?

A few years ago the Suns rented Waler McCarty during their playoff push. Walter said it was easy to learn the Suns system, "They just run around and shoot a lot of threes". Walter was wrong.

Compared to teams with huge play books, the Suns system looks amazingly simple. However, with standard plays all the player needs to do is learn what his assignment is. In the D'Antoni system, he has to learn floor recognition and be able to react immediately to what everybody is doing. IMHO, that's harder.

In the Suns offense, once a player gets a ball he has to decide three things instantly:

1. Am I open in a position to shoot? If sho, he needs to shoot instantly before the defense recovers.

2. Is there someone else WITH A BETTER SHOT open? If so, he needs to pass him the ball immediately.

3. Is there an open lane to the basket (such as if someone is running by and can be beaten with a pump fake)? If so, he needs to drive before the defense reacts and still look for dump or kickout opportunities.All of this is just when receiving the ball.

It is even more complicated without the ball in deciding whether to set up to receive a catch and shoot shot, set a pick, or cut based on reading the defense.The result is a need for constant and total court awareness. There is not enough time to consider all the options AFTER getting the ball. You don't know if you or your teammates are open without being aware of where all the defenders are. Plus, you have to be ready to get the ball at any time.

My guess is that this approach is more alien than anything new playes have ever seen. Total court awareness is usually left to the point guard, but D'Antoni wants everyone to think that way and not wait until they get the ball to look around. Almost every player has something to work on in this regard.

1. Banks - He still has the old "man on man" offensive orientation and lacks awareness of where his teammates are until after trying to break his man down. Even off the ball, his skills are somewhat of a mismatch for the Suns but could be a big deal on other teams.

2. Diaw - He has great instincts but is still not comfortable with "catch and shoot" and is too indecisive when going to the basket. It is great to pay attention to where the weakside help is coming from, but he needs to know if he can finish before the help arrives.

3. Marion - He doesn't cut to the basket enough and doesn't pass out quickly enough when covered. He also lacks a basic awareness of where his best locations for shooting are.

4. Bell - He has good awareness of when he's open but not of where open teammates are.

5. Stoudemire - He still struggles with recognizing double teams and where the open man is.

6. Barbosa - He tends to challenge weak side defenders in the race to the basket even when it would be better to dump off to a teammate.

7. Thomas - He plays within the offense well but doesn't pass much.

In addition to the "stand or cut" decisions, there is a recurring issue of whether to set picks or clear out. Too often guys would come over to set picks for Leandro even though no one can stop him anyway. The pick just pulls a defender over.

One of the issues is how to properly spread the floor and still move without the ball. It takes court awareness to know who is covering and where to go to a place that does not diminish the floor distribution.Rebounding is also an issue of floor awareness.

Most rebounds are a result of positioning, so once the ball is shot it means going to a likely location for a miss. Long shots tend to bounce wider, so standing under the basket is not the most likely place. When a player is driving, following in is a way to be in a position for a dump pass or to get the offensive rebound.In drafting Tucker and Strawberry, it is easy to be converned about their shooting. But it appears they have the temperment to play this style of basketball.

All About George

My name is George O'Brien and I regularly post under the handle of azirish. My usual haunt is Suns forum for http://www.arizonasportsfans.com/. About three years ago I was an official columnist for the board but discontinued due to time constraints. My other big passion is Irish music and I host the website for the Arizona Irish Music Society, http://www.azirishmusic.com.

As a heavy contributor on http://www.arizonasportsfans.com/ I was initiating a number of threads with items that might be better suited to a blog. I hope that by putting my writing together it will make more sense than separated into literally hundreds of threads.

I hope readers of this blog find it interesting but I certainly do not expect everyone to agree with my views.